If you get your US political news from The Morning Dump allow me to be the first to tell you that former President Donald Trump has been declared the winner of the Presidential election, Republicans have taken back the US Senate, and it’s possible Republicans narrowly retain the house (though it’ll be a while before anyone knows for sure). Also, if you get your US political news from The Morning Dump, that’s quite strange; maybe don’t do that.
I’m ill-equipped to help explain everything about last night, though it seems voters generally disapproved of the Biden Administration, its policies, and especially inflation. Americans clearly hate inflation. Which, I mean, I get.
I am, possibly, somewhat better equipped to make some guesses about the impact this could have on the automotive world. That’s worth talking about. We made the decision collectively and early on to not focus too much on politics around here unless it’s specifically related to cars (Kei trucks, IRA, et cetera) and that’ll be the plan going forward. The Autopian is a safe space.
This is going to be interesting as, more than anyone, automotive CEO Elon Musk has been behind the campaign and tied his future to it. If you feel some-kind-of-way about last night and don’t want to engage in a discussion about this you have my permission to skip this edition TMD. I was tempted to skip it, too.
Below will be my read on what could happen, with the major caveat that my ability to predict what will happen took a rather large hit last night (I really thought Ball State could defeat Miami of Ohio. Ball is in their name!). Oh, and some more Bolt recalls, just because.
Elon Musk’s Very Good Night
The future is gonna be fantastic pic.twitter.com/I46tFsHxs3
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2024
Here’s something that’s difficult to square. President Trump has been averse to CO2 requirements for cars in the United States, but his biggest public backer runs Tesla, an electric car company with a pro-environment image. During the campaign, this resulted in some curious statements, with President-Elect Trump saying he actually did like electric cars, just not for everyone. [Ed Note: I was interviewed by the New York Times a few months ago about the Cybertruck, and part of our conversation discussed whether we think it’s actually a positive thing for EV adoption that Musk is conservative. Does he help change the image of EVs to those who typically are less open to driving them? It’s an interesting thought. -DT].Â
Musk’s Tesla benefits greatly from carbon tax credits (something run by the California Air Resource Board, not the EPA) and from Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for electric cars. If you’re an automaker who is expecting to get those credits is there a universe wherein Trump and Tesla conspire to make that harder?
It would likely require getting the House and Senate to amend the bill in order to get rid of the credit completely, but the Biden Administration did decide to interpret the rule to allow automakers to get the $7,500 tax credit for vehicles they leased. This tax credit is important to a lot of car companies that aren’t building electric cars in the U.S. yet or use battery technology that uses too many materials sourced from China. I’ve written about this before, but here’s a chart of non-Tesla automakers and the split between leasing and buying:
The orange there is leasing and it’s the biggest chunk of sales for a lot of automakers here. I’m not sure this is the first item on Musk/Trump’s list, but it’s now in play.
I think even more important for Tesla, and this may explain why the company’s stock started exploding last night in pre-market trading, is that Musk seems to at least think he’ll have a say in regulatory policy as the head of some sort of “government efficiency commission.” It’s not clear what that is, but I had a guess a couple of weeks ago related to the Cybercab:
The regulatory hurdles of getting these cars out there when Waymo has fewer than 1,000 cars seem so high to me, though this does support my theory that part of what Musk wants out of a Trump administration is the ability to release thousands of robotaxis. I can’t imagine the current government in Texas or a Trump admin stopping him.
So, there you go. When it comes to SpaceX and Tesla, as well as possibly other companies Musk owns, you can expect Musk to try to reduce as many obstacles in his path as possible. If Republicans win the House this could be even simpler for him. This could also extend to labor, the environment, the FCC, and who knows what else.
Chinese Automakers And Battery Companies Will Likely Get Hit Hard
Let’s start with the obvious one: Companies trying to sell cars in the United States that were built in China were already in trouble, and this is going to make it worse. Is there a future for Lotus in the United States? What about the MotorTrend SUV of the Year Lincoln Nautilus, which is built in China? Polestar and Volvo benefit from an obscure trade rule that allows them to offset imports with exports from their South Carolina facilities… for now.
That’s not all.
China’s CATL is the world’s largest battery maker and has been trying to get into the US via joint ventures with American companies. That feels more remote than ever and I’m not sure what this means for Ford’s proposed plant backed by CATL, but it doesn’t seem great? Here’s the take from Automotive News:
Trump might also implement trade actions that expand on President Joe Biden’s steep Chinese EV tariffs and proposed rulemaking restricting the import of Chinese connected-vehicle technology.
Analysts expect that the Trump administration will implement new tariffs on battery components and silicon providers, targeting Chinese imports. Trump could also expand the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act by adding battery companies, including CATL, to the enforcement entity list.
While those actions are designed to undercut China’s manufacturing dominance, they might also punish American companies with higher costs for already pricey EV batteries — margins made thinner by an elimination of the EV tax credit.
Being an auto exec or even product planner in this environment is already difficult and it’s not going to get any easier anytime soon.
What’s Europe Going To Do?
Welp, this doesn’t unscrew Europe.
From Germany’s Manager Magazine:
The President of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), Achim Wambach , sees things similarly . “The election of Trump as President of the USA will probably lead to higher tariffs and lower taxes for companies in the United States,” Wambach told the Reuters news agency. In addition, American politics will focus even more on itself. “This increases the pressure on European companies to relocate their production to the USA.” Germany and the EU urgently need to strengthen their business locations. “Only a dynamic internal market can guarantee that we will not be crushed between the economic blocs of the USA and China ,” said Wambach.
Good luck doing that while also keeping jobs in Europe.
GM Recalls Some Bolts
As much as it might feel like things have changed this morning, at least there’s something we can all depend on: The Chevy Bolt being recalled.
General Motors must once again fix its Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles because of fire risk.
The automaker had to recall 142,000 Bolts globally a few years ago because of the issue. On Tuesday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration posted a recall of 107 Chevrolet Bolt EVs and EUVs, which is an SUV-like styling of the vehicle, over a fire risk. This new recall covers model year 2020-22 Bolt vehicles that were previously repaired for such a risk.
In its post, NHTSA stated, “The installation of advanced diagnostic software may have failed. As such, the high voltage battery could catch fire when charged to full or nearly full capacity.”
Fun times.
What I’m Listening To This Morning
I don’t know why, but LCD Soundsystem’s “Sound of Silver” is playing right now. No message. Just a song.
The Big Question
In your mind, what does the auto industry look like in the next few years?
{ whips out traffic cones }
So, it’s up to us, Normal Texans, to thwart this horsecrap. Godspeed, and happy coning.
More tariffs on Chinese EV’s will help American car companies and Europeans who manufacture here. I think that’s a bad thing, though. When the car companies had the upper hand from 2020-2023, they ripped car buyers off. Without competition, they’ll do it again with EV’s.
Stelantis looking like a big, big mistake… Not selling in the US at the moment (even less than Europe), angry, expensive unions in the US and now absolutely zero sympathy from the Trump US govt.
Renault got burnt bad way back trying to enter the US, looks like it is Pugeot’s turn.
They keep muttering about producing in Mexico, but I guess that is off the table for four more years….
Just want to express appreciation for the writing here. The intro addressed the elephant in the room, respectfully reminded us that politics and cars do intersect, reaffirmed the website’s (well-considered) position on political content, and still got a couple of chuckles out of me. As someone feeling pretty nauseated by our country’s political system right now, this is exactly what I needed. Thanks Matt.
I am pretty sure EU can be a third block / pole in the world. They would have to get their shit together but yea, they could sell cars to Africa, Middle East, etc if they improved their geopolitical fortunes. If not, then there goes our third way of life.
I’m a little embarrassed to admit I’m pretty sure I accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan again.
Routing for the UB Bulls to take the MAC this year! Ball state was a risky pick.
Forgive me for making a personal statement. This is the group therapy I needed today. Inhale, exhale, stand tall.
The decision to not focus “too much on politics” was a wise one. I imagine a particular partner who is 2nd-gen responsible for keeping a large business afloat, and not just from the journalism world where 90% group to one side and yet somehow believe they are in the middle*, was key there. Whatever any of your personal beliefs are, I hope The Autopian continues to provide news and information like journalism was supposed to be about, in your particular talented and entertaining way, and not try to change the world to whatever ideal suits a particular value or lack of one and as I’ve said before, Gawker-up the place.
Let both halves of the country just enjoy a good read.
*My wife was a career media person and would tell you exactly that.
I voted, but I am all out of civic participation at this moment. I’m… I’m gonna sit some. I haven’t slept.
Don’t know how old you are, but, Pogo, Bloom County, and Calvin & Hobbes are all freely available online. When really down, I go to the latter two, then, once I’ve laughed at life’s absurdity, I go to Pogo to remind me that the political angst I’m feeling is not at all new
Thanks for this. I’ve been meaning to steal all the Calvin and Hobbes books from my parents and now I don’t have to. I read them voraciously in multiple points in my childhood but it’s been years since and I think I will only gain new pleasure and appreciation reading through again.
Physical copies are gold. I occasionally drive till I don’t have service, hike a likely path till I find a good log, then spend the day reading & laughing by myself in the woods. I need that a couple times a year.
Do I wait to inherit the old copies or buy myself a set? Mayhaps both.
I really enjoyed finding them in used bookstores & thrift shops
A tax of 20% on imported goods (except China, which will be 60%) will hurt new vehicle sales. the money that people would’ve been forking out on new rides will now be in the US Government’s pocket.
If Trump goes through with it, we just voted in the biggest modern US tax increase ever. It’s pretty nuts, I’m trying to wrap my mind around it. There is zero chance the government of China, who owns a portion of all businesses there, will just mark down their prices to accommodate our tariffs.
The full fledged trade war caused by the tariffs will probably lower the US credit rating to an untenable level. The national debt will skyrocket when the credit rating is marked down, and the administration will probably risk a default rather than acquiesce. Most of our debt is owned domestically, you are invested in it and you may not realize. Mutual funds, 401k, pension funds, and the stock market in general will be annihilated.
On the other side of it, if you were able to phase in a 15% tariff on targeted items that we already make here in the USA, it could strengthen the manufacturing base, and things get interesting. The cost of a car will still go up, and it’ll hurt sales, but a bit less apocalyptic.
Strengthening manufacturing keeps money in the country, which is good. For too long, corporate America has gutted our ability to design and produce things, and instead just outsources the labor to cheaper countries, so that a select few can benefit in obscene bonuses and salaries. But this isn’t a partisan thing; it has been happening for literal decades.
I agree with you here. This is an issue that has gone on for a long time and it’s naive to believe that any side hasn’t supported profit building.
I would love to see manufacturing move back to the US but we’ve had decades of cheap products due to outsourcing and I don’t think we can simply just bring it all back. If we did that, prices would go up on everything due to our high labor costs creating domino effects the whole length of the economy. Couple that with our massive consumption mindset and we’ll have whole swaths of population who will just be challenged just to survive with the huge cost increases.
Or maybe, when everything isn’t dirt cheap and delivered next day with free shipping we might just stop buying so much shit we don’t actually need in the first place.
A tariff that progressively increased over a longer period of time would help push more manufacturing here. Milwaukee used to be the machine shop of the United States. I want it back.
This would be ideal and solve many of our problems. But let’s face it, ‘Muricans will just go into deeper debt.
I’ve been working in the automotive supply chain 25 years. So, I do selfishly want some controls on auto components coming in from overseas. The problem is, nobody here wants to do this work. I had a guy training to be a leader that left to work for Molly Maids, and a shop environment is not for most people, unless times are desperate. We’d need immigrants to keep up, and we won’t have them anymore. So the plan just doesn’t work. I’m all over the place with my thoughts, but ultimately, I’m confident that the aggressive tariff model is gonna crush us.
Increase the wages, and someone will want to do the work. This solution works for literally every job that has trouble finding employees.
Why not strap all the Bolts on to rockets and use them as conventional missiles? It would save the both GM and the US Military millions.
No guidance systems, just set the angle, thrust and fire? They’d be Boltlistic missiles!
The smartest choice.
To put it bluntly, a damn mess.
If Trump gets his way and tariffs everything, the car market is going to slow way down because of the pricing. If he gets his way and ends any form of subsidy for BEVs, that market is going to be relegated to sales like it had 15 years ago.
I was putting my ducks in a row to try and take advantage of Ford’s offer of a free L2 charger with install. I’m not even considering it any more because I just don’t know what lies for me on the other side of that lease.
Elon Musk is a grifting hypocrite that has lived his whole professional life dependent on government subsidies, but actively rallies against them. Many businesses he owns depend on being built with taxpayer and pyramid scheme money. Now that they all exist, and he has reaped his benefits, I predict he is going to shutdown that money for anyone else in his new “role” in the government.
Elon is a greedy greedy asshole who has duped us all with philanthropic ideas and concepts only to pull the carpet out from under us once he gets what he wants.
I was doing really good with my drinking. But, I plan on heading to Costco this evening and getting the really big bottle of the Kirkland Vodka and start drinking heavily again.
Despite classic Republican values to keep more money in one’s own pocket, I do not foresee this as a future for anyone making less than $250k per year.
As of last night:
Call a friend, man. I’m pissed off too but don’t harm yourself. Your daughter needs you and your country needs you.
Hey, on the plus side you still have time to get a gun because Trump won. I kid, I kid.
I get it. But it really won’t be that bad. The noise and annoyances will be bad and the reality of it will be bad often. Just not as much as you’re fearing.
Also, spend the extra on that $20 bottle of Kirkland Vodka. It’s actually quite good!
Parkso, no! David hasn’t even slept in the Aztek yet.
This isn’t worth throwing your sobriety out over. Don’t let them take that from you, you worked very hard on it. Give someone you care about a call, if you’re feeling like you’re in a crisis state there are countless free resources out there (988, I’m sure your local country/city/etc has a crisis team, etc) at the end of the day you’re not alone. People depend on you and if we all give up on standing up for what’s right there will be nothing left for our kids.
Hell if you’re feeling so down you think you’re a risk to yourself or others check yourself into the hospital. There’s absolutely no shame in it, and I say that as both someone who works in the mental health field and someone who’s had acute mental health and substance use episodes repeatedly. You can and will get through this and you’ll come out the other end stronger.
Keep fighting my friend. We need as many folks like you in this world as we can get.
This community isn’t the hero we deserve, but it’s definitely the one we need.
I wanted to reply to Parsko yesterday but I was not in a good place myself so it was hard to find the words. I’m glad to see others were more successful.
Gotta second Nsane here. I say this with the utmost kindness, but you gotta get a grip here. It’s really not gonna be that bad. If anything, this motivates those who share your values to not take anything for granted and work harder.
If you really feel that you MUST get blackout drunk, I am in no position to tell you no, but I am in a position to say that you will regret it. Not even just the fact that you will feel like dogshit for days with a rapid heart rate and unchecked anxiety, but you will also have to deal with the shame and embarrassment for what you do while drunk.
It’s a bad idea.
I really hope you don’t drink. If you do, I hope you have compassion for yourself. The world hasn’t ended yet and you deserve to take care of yourself!
I’m not going to tell you not to drink. It’s not a good coping mechanism, but it can be cathartic to drink and wallow in your feelings.
I am going to say that taking care of yourself and your daughter should be priority one. Do what you need to do to give both of you the best life you can despite all this. If you can drink and do that, go for it. But if you’re going to spiral out of control, reach out to anyone you can. If you let this ruin you personally, you’re letting him win another battle, and one that is going to hurt you and your daughter even more than anything he’s going to do at the federal level.
Wishing the best for you Parsko, whether you decide to have a few or not. This world will become tougher for all of us to survive in, make no mistake, but we must become tougher ourselves. I became acquainted with a firearm legally that I practiced with and keep safely stowed. My desires to become a parent and outlook for the environment have changed based on the election results as well, but we must remember what we still have. You still have time with your daughter and she will need all the support you can give her.
Take care friend.
I want to say thank you for your support to all of you. I’m not one to get blackout drunk, it’s not my style. I always have to default to not going overboard because of my family. I never go overboard, nor do I plan on it. I won’t get the bottle. I’ve been really good for nearly a year now in NOT getting one. You all rock.
For reasons I am not allowed to explain, though, I know this is going to be exactly as bad as we think it’s going to be.
For four decades I wanted an I Voted sticker which I couldn’t have because this state nulled my franchise due to drunken teenage behavior. I finally got one yesterday, then saw the rather expected results this morning. I allowed myself a Monster this morning as I will not allow myself a beer this afternoon. I hope you have a 2nd tier fallback as well. Sincere best wishes
2nd tier fallback is a good way to put it. After walking the kids this morning I ran faster than I have in a long time. I suck at running. I wasn’t able to muster a “good morning” to a guy in a “GUNS AND TRUMP” hat. But I did feel better at the end.
I’ve had decades now of figuring out strategies to deal. I’m way too lazy to run, but soon now I’ll load the dog up and we’ll go to a field I know where I can bitch all I need to without others around. And he will no doubt bitch about the cat I brought home. Then we’ll both be good and can carry on.
walking the kids TO SCHOOL, not like they are dogs (although taking a kid on a walk is a good way to de-escalate a frustrated kid)
The urge to drink heavily is strong, admittedly. I stopped drinking about 5 months ago for health reasons. I’m going to stick with it… my family needs me and I need my health more than I need a drink. Take care of yourself.
I’ve deliberately avoided the news today. I didn’t expect to write a political comment on The Autotopian… but here we are.
I appreciate the readers on this site don’t all share my political views. I’ll admit last night was a bitter disappointment. But in a way… I’m not sure it would have made _too_ much difference either way. We are bitterly divided – and the people who voted for whoever you didn’t… aren’t going away.
I’m not a believer in “bothsiderism” in this case. Despite what you may or may not believe… “one side” has a bigger issue with the truth and acceptance than the other. But ultimately… our politicians are a symptom. The people who vote for them are the underlying problem. Disengaging from social media feeds, taking a walk and meeting your neighbors… may be a good idea today.
Just FYI you can buy a gun. Pretty surmountable problem to overcome vs everything else you mentioned. With the increased militarization of police forces and automation/ai replacing a lot of jobs in the next few years, I think having some is a pretty good idea because this could be the beginning of the collapse.
+1 identical despair. I’m so fucking angry for my daughter, and that’s not even the whole tip of a very large iceberg.
I’m gonna step away from the Internet I think, but know you aren’t alone, and are maybe even envied because my state has a stupid ABC and I can’t get Costco jugs of liquor.
Hey there fellow Autopian. Sounds like I wasn’t the only one thinking about hitting the sauce a little hard last night. I was good though, slammed a couple bottles of Sam Adams Octoberfest instead to make myself nice and bloated and left it at that. My list of thoughts concerning the current state of things:
I ended up making plans with my daughter – we decided to try and create our own reality and concentrate even more on our shared interest in IMSA and WEC this year. Between races to watch we also have a garage full of cars to fix up. After that we discussed which rental property she’s going to get if the worst happens, and I have to unwind my life here so I can follow my wife back to her home country. She wants to stay in our house with its awesome garage setup, but the old 5-plex makes more sense. She could live there for free while going to college. Plus, I’ll need the money from the equity of our current residence to set up shop again a long ways away.
I’m thankful that we have more options than most, but what a fucking conversation to have.
The worst part is my wife might not even mind the idea considering what one of the ladies at the nursing home she works at recently said: “You’re what’s wrong with our country” (wife is black and has an accent). Granted, she’s been hearing that kind of shit on and off since 2016, so it mostly just rolls past her these days.
I’m still kind of in a funk today, but even after all of that the whiskey bottle hasn’t been touched. I plan to wrench tonight instead of getting blotto. Hang in there.
My wife and I made the difficult decision a few years ago and left the US in late 2022 to time up with my eldest daughter starting school in the beginning of 2024 (we moved continents and hemispheres). My house has three people with XX chromosomes in it and this week as solidly cemented it as the right thing for us to do for our future. My wife is from the US and we had been living there permanently together for nine years up until that point so had to upend very established lives to make it happen.
So, I feel you.
I had been taking a drinking hiatus until I read this.
Enjoying a lovely frozen margarita right now on this unseasonably warm November evening.
I will stab in the neck the next old fuck I see in a red hat.
Thanks, Parsko. Cheers to you, sir.
You know, I actually do get a lot of my news from the Morning Dump. I expected the conversation here to be more measured and focused than other websites and I was right.
Never read the comments, except here.
Here and Defector.
Nothing in the immediate future. All of the changes will take time. Over the next few years, the US will become a dirtier and more dangerous place to live due to deregulation. There will be long legal battles as the Federal government goes to battle with California over emissions and other environmental regulations.
This is none of my business, as they say… but let’s just say, that I really like my indicator stalks (and gearstick), and that is how it is going to stay. Glad there are options.