Registration data from earlier this year is starting to come in, giving us a better picture of some interesting fluctuations in the market. Do you feel like you’re seeing more Cybertrucks? That’s not a coincidence, as the Cybertruck has apparently outsold both the R1T and F-150 Lightning. But will it last?
Federal regulators are worried that your car knows too much about you and, therefore, China might know too much about you if your software is made in China. Rather than face that uncertain future, the government might restrict the data your car can share.
The industrial policies of both President Biden and Possible Future President Trump are built around bringing more manufacturing to the United States. Will that result in a dramatically different manufacturing footprint for cars? Probably not.
And, finally, Stellantis wants to make it cheaper and easier to buy an EV.
Tesla Tops R1T And F-150 Lightning In May
Every time I drive by there’s more and more CyberTrucks piling up. Some have grass growing up the tires lol pic.twitter.com/opCZMbXlRZ
— Zerin Dube (@SpeedSportLife) July 16, 2024
The same registration data that pointed us to an ascendant Toyota Tundra also reveals some changes in the electric truck landscape. The Tesla Cybertruck has edged out the leading EV truck, the F-150 Lightning.
As mentioned yesterday, companies are sharing less sales data so we’re relying on registration data to learn more about what did or didn’t sell. The downside of this data is that it’s on a delay. According to S&P Global Mobility via Automotive News, May registration data shows Tesla sold 3,907 of the Cybertruck, followed by 2,353 registrations for the Lightning and 1,237 registrations for the Rivian R1T.
If that holds, the Cybertruck would end up being the 5th most popular EV in the United States in May. Is this permanent? From the article:
While the Cybertruck is likely to be popular short term because of its reservation backlog, Libby said it’s otherwise in uncharted waters because it’s so different from rival trucks, regardless of fuel type.
“I just don’t see how it becomes anything approaching a mainstream vehicle, given its design,” Libby said. However, “Elon Musk is so visionary, he’s so out in front of everyone else, and he’s succeeded. That’s why I’m not going to dismiss it completely. Frankly, if it was from another company, I would dismiss it.”
This is kind of where I am. The dream of the EV truck is a weird one, as trucks are not ideal platforms for electric vehicles right now (look how much battery is needed to make the Silverado RST competitive). The Cybertruck is a decent truck and the wild looks are appealing to a certain demographic, but how much of this is a result of a backlog and how much of this is a dramatic shift in the marketplace?
I don’t know. Maybe Musk has it right. Maybe this is what everyone wants. If it can maintain this pace, Tesla might be able to outsell the F-150 Lightning this year. If Musk can deliver a cheaper Cybertruck, as promised, I could see it being the most popular EV truck this year.
‘A Car Is A Very Scary Thing. Your Car Knows A Lot About You.’
Earlier this year there was a lot of panic about Chinese cars spying on consumers, motivating the government to do something about it once the government figured out what was actually happening.
Now the government has looked into it and realized what the rest of us already knew, which is that cars are huge, leaky data sinks. The quotes from Alan Estevez — the Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security in this Reuters piece about the feds exploring Chinese cars — are both scary and a little funny:
“A car is a very scary thing. Your car knows a lot about you. Your car probably gets a software update, whether it’s an electric vehicle or an autonomous combustion engine vehicle,” he said.
“A modern car has a lot of software in it. It’s taking lots of pictures. It has a drive system. It’s connected to your phone. It knows who you call. It knows where you go. It knows a lot about you.”
Yup. What’s the government going to do about it?
“We’re looking at a few components and some software – not the whole car – but it would be some of the key driver components of the vehicle that manage the software and manage the data around that car that would have to be made in an allied country,”
There are few Chinese-built cars in the United States at the moment, though it may be inevitable.
Cars Will Continue To Be Made Mostly Where They Are Already Being Made: Report
The huge investment in electric cars may mean new jobs, but it also may just mean that plants that were once used to make gas-powered cars are going to make EVs, and that those workers, rather than being fired, are just going to get to keep their jobs.
All this comes from a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (h/t Automotive News), which comes to this conclusion:
At the scale of the integrated three-country region, we find surprisingly little change is expected in the geography of light vehicle production. Most BEVs are forecasted to be assembled in existing plants after they have been converted from ICE vehicle production. And most new battery (cell and pack) plants are being situated in auto alley, where engine plants have long been clustered.
This is partly explained by the fact that the underlying economic geography principles of motor vehicle production—agglomeration economics and economies of scale—continue to influence location decisions for production even as the auto industry shifts toward electrification. The majority of plants assemble large volumes of light vehicles and are located within auto alley and central Mexico, resulting in a highly agglomerated industry footprint.
That makes a lot of sense. While the EV industry requires a lot of new production techniques and inputs, the reality is that it’s easier to build cars where people already build cars.
Stellantis Will Give You A Charger Or $600 If You Buy An EV
Stellantis brands like Jeep and Chrysler have been at the forefront of PHEV technology here in the United States, but have seriously lagged in the EV space. That’s going to change as Stellantis starts selling more EVs like the new Wagoneer S and Dodge Charger Daytona.
It’s a crowded space, so how is Stellantis going to differentiate itself? From the automaker we’ve got our first indication of the Stellantis gameplan:
”As we introduce our all-electric vehicles this year in the U.S., we want to ensure that our customers easily understand the charging options available to them before or upon purchase,” said Mathilde Lheureux, head of energy and charge business unit. “Simply stated, included in the purchase of a Stellantis battery-electric vehicle is the ability choose a Free2move Level 2 charging unit or charging credits with a value of $600 to use at charging stations across the country, which are easily identifiable through the app.”
Various automakers also offer discounted chargers or credits for charging, including up to three years of free charging from VW for some of its buyers.
What I’m Listening To This Morning
Let’s calm it down a little bit with a new song from Laura Marling. Please enjoy some “Patterns.”
The Big Question
Rank’em by EOY sales:
- Tesla Cybertruck
- F-150 Lightning
- Hummer EV
- Silverado RST
- Rivian R1T
Last week I passed my local Tesla dealer and I counted 9 Cybertrucks there! I see them every day now.
As an aside, a few days ago my 9-year old son asked me to play Matchbox cars with him, and he has a Cybertruck and one of the new Hummers. I didn’t anticipate how boring it was to play with those when you don’t make engine noises.
We’re not gonna do anything about what data your car gathers about you, we’re just gonna make sure only our “friends” get that data.
If Stellantis was offering a free DODGE Charger with the purchase of an EV, that might get some takers.
For this year only:
Lightning and Silverado because fleets, Rivian less than Cyber because those that really wanted a Rivian already got one. Then Hummer I hope last because it’s the epitome of if President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho himself requisitioned an EV.
On the China car software note, good thing we’re not all walking around with networked devices in our pockets that were built in China, amiright? Lol.
Mine was built in Korea.
Mark my words- Surprise Darkhorse Hummer EV. Why? Because millions will read this, and remember that not only was the Hummer EV a thing, but you can still actually buy one new. Then go out and buy one ironically.
Whats weird is that the Hummer is actually a pretty decent EV. Both better and far more exclusive the Cybertruck. And I say that as a true hater of the Hummer H2.
Totally agree here. I saw one of the hummer evs the other day and was like – you know what, I don’t hate it as much as I thought I would. Now, the CT – I hate that thing.
I can’t understand why any sane person would pick the cybertruck over an R1T or the Lightning unless they really just want to be “that guy” that has the new shiny thing. The people who actually want a good interior and good features should get the R1T, and the guys who actually use a truck for work should get the Lightning. The CT is basically just a show-off and it’s really a bad one. Sort of like the schmucks who drive lifted hummer H3s or the original Humvee. They want to show off but their vehicle is terribly impractical and ungainly and not suited to the intended purpose (unless that purpose was to piss people off).
The CT weighs the least of the 3 and has the highest payload and best charging network.
Technically no, Tesla doesnt have the best network. Hate to say it, but Rivian and Ford have the best network for their trucks as of right now (GM soon). Why? Well simply they all have access to the Supercharger network now, buuuuut Tesla made their charge door so small that you cannot use a CCS-to-NACS adapter, effectively giving the other trucks a much larger network to choose from.
With such a large portion of the truck market going to people who use them as commuters, the showing off and having the latest thing contingent is a big pool. Flip side is that it’s unlikely to last, especially as the seemingly endless problems pile up and the later buyers get turned off.
Matt, I’m pretty surprised that you didn’t mention that all of Elon’s companies are moving to TX. All of them, apparently. No more with the Left Coast.
Ditching Cali is certainly going to be expensive, but I wonder if the bottom line is truly a loss after factoring taxes and such…
It’s pretty major news, either way.
I don’t think they will close Freemont. Just move the headquarters.
Maybe not. Who knows? What is clear is that if there was ever a dude that could blow $10 billion to prove a point, it’s Elon. He’s kinda the definition of “zero fucks to give.”
I know that the Cybertruck is very divisive, and there are many unusual features and manufacturing issues around it that made things uncertain for a while, but jeez have some people said some exceptionally stupid things about it. People have said all of these things to me, including some here on The Autopian:
“It’ll never make production”
“If it ever makes production, they won’t sell more than 1000, and not for more than a month. This will be a huge manufacturing and sales flop.”
And my personal favorite, “it’ll never pass crash testing.” One person said this to me one week before Tesla started deliveries. I guess they were unaware that cars have to be crash tested many months before the manufacturer can begin sales? Tesla may be dumb, but they’re not dumb enough to sell cars that haven’t passed all necessary testing yet.
It’s fairly satisfying to see these people proven wrong. We’ll see if the Cybertruck ends up having any kind of lasting mainstream success, but it has already sold more than a lot of people expected.
And that doesn’t surprise me; throughout most of car history, many cars have been purchased simply because they were quirky, or fun, or different in some way. And in 2024, people have extremely limited options for anything that is quirky, fun, different, or anything other than a gray crossover.
It shouldn’t have made production. Its the most poorly thought out dysfunctional vehicle design of modern times. A poorly made, dangerous, rolling piece of crap.
It was fun as a concept. A small production run might have been fun. A volume production truck with sharp panel edges, Yugo level build quality, and many many style over function design compromises is not fun.
The eventual recalls and lawsuits are going to be epic.
I’m not going to say you’re wrong, for now.
However, one thing Tesla seems to do is continually improve their assembly standards as time passes. Should they release such poor assembly on their customers at the beginning? Absolutely not. However, as shown by the history of all their cars, the original assemblies are a hot mess, but become better with time. (Maybe not BMW/MB level good, but certainly better than Stellantis/Yugo…)
So how long before CT hoods and doors don’t slice thru human flesh like a Ginsu through a Tomato?
I will also be feeling pretty smug when that doesn’t happen either.
The CT is going through the same thing the Gladiator or PT Cruiser went through. It’s the new hotness. The fashionistas will get one, make their social media posts and dump it. Then they’ll have to curtail production to meet the much lower demand.
You have chosen the worst possible examples to prove your point. The PT Cruiser had sustained strong sales for many years, with more than a million ultimately produced. And the Gladiator is currently selling decently well, 4 years into production. Neither have been sales flops, at all.
The AMC Pacer started out strong in 1975 but sales dropped so much it was discontinued after a short run of 1980 models.
Yeah, people forgot pretty quickly that the Pacer was inititially seen as something of a desirable fashion accessory, telling was that, although ostensibly an inexpensive commuter car, the majority of sales in the first year were pretty loaded, high trim versions, people were paying as much as a full size sedan, or more, to own a Pacer. Then they crashed hard when everyone who wanted one had one and the novelty wore off
That’s one thing people always forget about the neo-retro cars of the 2000s. People bought New Beetles, PT Cruisers, and HHRs by the truckload!
I totally forgot about the New Beetle! I still see PT Cruisers every other day or so and even an HHR occasionally but never ever the New Beetle. What happened to them? Did they all mechanically total themselves?
The thing is, those were all pretty functional as vehicles and not overly expensive. They were fun but also usable.
The Cybertruck is expensive, actively dangerous to operate, and really doesn’t do anything well enough to justify how compromised it is. That’s a great formula for an exotic car, but a disaster for volume production.
Tesla could have made a great pickup. Instead they made an unfinished movie prop with fundamental design issues.
The CT is a platform though, maybe even a good one. They can put a “normal” looking truck body on it if they need/want to and probably print money. Or maybe use the model 3 or Y platform for a smaller truck?
Didn’t Ford have a bunch of recalls this year that stopped production on the Lightning? It’s hard to sell any vehicles when you either don’t have any. Quality concerns (which probably prompted the recall) don’t help push demand in the market, either. Otherwise, I see Tesla early adopters getting their fill soon. Influencers move on and wanna-bes grab second hand models.
Ford did a stop ship order on the Lightnings back in February that might actually effect this data.
rather they stop and fix it before they sell it I suppose.
Musk did a bunch of drugs and took a dump, then dug through the mess and pulled out this diamond of an idea.
It outsold the F150 Lightning. Amazing.
Can you see me Toecutter? Can you see me man?
I mean it makes sense – the venn diagram of the sort of people who buy new, expensive trucks and the sort of people who give two shits about the environment is almost two separate circles. So that leaves the hardcore Elon fanboys as the largest demo.
What I genuinely am curious about is what percentage of people canceled their reservations for the Cybertruck the day it’s specs were announced.
I was a reservation holder. No physical door handles killed it for me initially, and the more I learned about it the more it justified my decision to cancel my reservation.
I remember seeing that there were something like two million reservations at some point. Genuinely curious how many of those folks actually end up with a Cybertruck.
I’m less curious about that number mainly due to people not being able to afford to go through with buying the Cybertruck they reserved. I think the percentage of reservation cancelations on the first day or perhaps during first week after the official specs were announced would be a more accurate way to determine reservation holder dissatisfaction.
This is why we can’t have nice things
(car posting) I have finally seen both stainless steel cars at a traffic light. A Delorean DMC-12 and a Cybertruck. I got a photo of the Delorean but it’s a shitty blurred mirror pic, like someone swearing they captured bigfoot on camera.
So as one of the few people here who probably actually owns or wouldn’t mind having a Chinese EV (Polestar 2, although I’d be open to others), the privacy stuff really isn’t concerning to me. The integration with Android for the primary OS is honestly somewhat assuring, if anything?
For a modern car, I have far, far more trust in Google around data security than I do in auto manufacturers, who notoriusly give zero shits and regularly make hacky versions of software that are poorly maintained and integrated. Meanwhile, yes, Google tracks nearly everything, but, uh…whenever I drive my car, I also have my phone, which is recording the exact same data and more? Granted, not from cameras, and it’s why I refuse to have a car with interior cameras (see: Tesla creeping), but otherwise, I’ve pretty much already resigned myself to being tracked wherever I go.
For all my spicy decision making needs, there’s a bicycle, a hoodie, sunglasses, and an N-95.
Also, as far as data tracking politics go, hot take: China as a country isn’t my enemy. Their trade policies have never taken the same militaristic form of imperialist domination and exploitation that the US has, posing far less of a threat to the world. The whole situation is treated as more of a rivalry that can benefit all, rather than a zero sum game (I know – a country with more than a billion people has more complex political thought than ‘die US die’!).
I’m not worried about them having my data – what exactly are they gonna do with it? Unlike the US, which can and will use that data in the future to prosecute me or people I care about if I do something like carry a friend across state lines to receive life-saving medical care. That’s my real concern, and politicians never consider banning parts with the same issues if that data is leaked and accessed by US companies to provide to US state entities.
(Before anyone comes at me for making this political, this line of xenophobic nationalist panic about “data security” is actively being used to deny Chinese goods from being sold here, including things like cheap solar panels and yes, cars. That has a huge impact on my life, including making things like the long-term future of my car manufacturer and parts availability less certain.
Also, as a side note, I’m strongly libertarian and opposed to governments or other opressive structures exploiting people in all forms, so I’m not a fan of any of this. Wish it didn’t have to be added, but otherwise folks think you’re suddenly a fan of child labor or some shit because you don’t feel threatened by people living their lives on the other side of the globe.)
“While the EV industry requires a lot of new production techniques and inputs, the reality is that it’s easier to build cars where people already build cars.”
Just like it was being discussed a few days ago, why are we giving them upwards of 10 figures again? Oh, yeah. For funsies and optics.
oof.
(serious posting) No surprise. All the dollar-store iconoclasts who think shredding the social contract and are allergic any form of responsibility will happily take a 100k loan out and then default. I’d like to see how many of these stay with their original owners once a recession hits.
They may save enough in fuel to pay the difference in the note. Going from 10 mpg to 50 mpge on national average electricity rates ($0.17 per kWh) saves a bit. For example, 1000 miles a month at 10 mpg is 100 gallons of fuel. Assuming $3.50 a gallon, that’s $350 in gas. That same 1000 miles a month at 50 mpge is 20 gallons. 20 gallons is equivalent to 674 kWh (1 gallon corresponds to 33.7 kWh). 674 x $0.17 is $114.58. $235 a month isn’t exactly chump change.
Shredding the social contract is the perfect description of what these jackasses do. Literally psychopaths that are incapable of thinking how their actions affect others.
Paradoxically the Enlightenment ideals this nation was founded on may be the stolid conservative ‘old order’ as we move into a brave (not a damned thing brave about CEO-kings) new age for the King and CEO. They’ve got their playbook (cleave to the state and weaken it), we don’t.
Is that map with the auto plant locations only showing new investment?
Because several plants are missing if it’s just location of current manufacturing.
Cybertruck sales dominance will end soon. At some point they will run out of look-at-me YouTok influencers.
Who all already had basically lined up to purchase the vehicle – they’re basically filling all those orders first, I imagine.
When those end, then I believe what you said will come to pass right away.
F-150
Silverado
Hummer
Rivian
Cybertruck
Give it about 6 months into the lifecycle of most Stellantis EVs and they’ll be jumping from $600 credits to $6,000 incentives, and 6 months after that to $16,000 once their inventory hits ~500 days
I just can’t imagine having the money to buy a Cybertruck, and picking it over the R1T.
Same. I like seeing both on the roads and I appreciate the CT for breaking up the sea of black/silver/grey SUVs but were I to have that much $$$$$ I drive home in the Rivian.
Yeah, I don’t hate the Cybertruck. I would never buy one, but I kind of like that it exists in the same vein I’m glad that Chevy built the SSR, or that Oscar Mayer has their Weinermobile…
But to be aware the R1T exists, and then buying the Cybertruck instead? Absolute lunacy! If you already have an R1T and are adding a Cybertruck to your collection, well, I guess I’m ok with that.
The Weinermobile is the perfect comparison! I don’t want to own one myself but it always makes me happy to see one and it’d probably be fun to drive at least once. Thanks for that!
Huh, not the reason I’d call Cybertrucks “weinermobiles”, but I respect your take.
The real problem is Oscar Mayer refuses to build Weinermobiles at scale and release them to the public.
Yes, because the CyberTruck comes in a rainbow of vibrant colors. You can have it in any color you want, as long as it’s stainless*.
*Aftermarket vehicle wrap excluded.
I think the design is striking enough to break up the monotony without multiple colors but that said, at least 25% of the ones I’ve seen crawling around here are wrapped.
You know what might look cool? An anodized Cybertruck! It would protect the finish, too.
Saw a red-wrapped Cybertruck in the parking lot at Casa Bonita (yes, that one) the other day. It didn’t do that thing any favors. It just made it look even worse.
I guess not having the money to by even a nice ICE truck is nice. Nice in that I don’t have to worry about which electric truck to buy.
Especially with the updated R1T on the horizon, offering more power, efficiency, and less complication at the same price points as the current R1T, which is already more a more compelling vehicle and truck than the Cybertruck at this point.
Agreed. I was in Seattle last week and was amazed and very pleased by how many Rivians I saw. I have still yet to have my eyes assaulted by a Cybertruck. Another awesome thing about the Rivians is how common the colors are. I have seen 10x as many green, blue and yellow ones than I have greyscale which is awesome! I think that’s the only car that is not 90% boring colors.
Lucky you. There’s at least one in Boise that I’ve seen repeatedly and I’ve seen one in Bend, OR. But I do think the Rivians still outnumber them significantly, and you’re right about the colors. A lot of green, some blue, some red, and the occasional yellow one (which is my favorite).
Haha I still want to see one. I respect it for being so abnormal, though the fact that the panels can double as cutting blades not so much.
Yeah they are colorful enough that I was starting to think they didn’t offer a boring pallette, then I went on the site to look and they have white, silver, silvery grey, grey, black, red, blue and green. The yellow has apparently been discontinued which is unfortunate. With the majority of the colors available being boring, I am even more impressed with how many of the owners check the box for good colors. The green would be my vote based on currently available, but yeah the yellow was a great color!
I’ve seen at least four or five already in Boise and Meridian, so there’s probably way more than that
I have probably seen a few different ones, but I cannot confirm because I’m not looking long enough to verify. I suppose the one I saw this weekend probably wouldn’t have been the one(s) I’ve been seeing, since it didn’t have plates.
A friend I was with pointed and laughed until it drove off. I just ignored it. I did the same when he also gave a bike bar a thumbs down. Negative attention is still attention.
The CT looks even more like a movie prop in person, like a movie prop without the proper lighting and camera angles to make it look real. Rivians look they’re high end and the colors are great.
If I had Cybertruck money, I would buy a Silverado EV instead… Or two Lightnings.
People will pick a Tesla over the competition for the same reason that many will vote for a particular candidate: They have the benefit of a cult following that defies objective reason.
You’d pick the CT for the charging network, a more established EV vendor, and the larger bed with a better-working tonneau cover.
Also, the CT is the lightest of the bunch with the best payload (weight ref https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/tesla-cybertruck-ford-f150-lightning-rivian-r1t-comparison-test-video.html, payload is scattered googling):
Outside the unusual exterior appearance, and opinions on Musk himself, what are the objections? It’s a reasonable EV pickup. Existing pickup culture is already ridiculous, so I’m not sure being different from that is a big sin.
I’m not bothering to do much research here, but I would just make a guess that if you are really concerned about using the truck as a working truck (like what a pickup is intended to be), you’d avoid the EV space altogether because the weight, towing and payload on an EV truck are going to be significantly reduced because of the battery. A quick search for an normal-ass F150 shows payload of 3325 lbs and towing of 14,000 depending upon the engine and bed configuration. All the while the F-150 is 1,000 – 2000 lbs lighter than any of these EVs.
If you can charge at home, and you don’t typically blow 300+ miles (or 90 miles towing something heavy) a day, EV trucks make a ton of sense. My LR4 costs me $90 a tank to fill for 300ish miles. A CT would cost me (in NJ) $7.
Rivians will be on the Supercharging network in less than a year.
The updates to the Rivian have supposedly fixed the tonneau problems. The CT tonneau also blocks the rear window. Personally, I wouldn’t use the Rivian tonneau because I’m not a tonneau guy. Probably wouldn’t on the CT either.
The updated Rivian should also be lighter than before, but likely still heavier than both the CT and Lightning.
The R1T is cheaper. Won’t cut you. It handles better both at the limits and as a daily driver, and has better range (advertised and real world). It’s supposedly better off road too. It has decent outward visibility too. I also won’t be surprised if the new quad motor version is faster than the CT Beast, but that’s not a big selling point to me.
And then this is more of a preference, but the R1T is smaller; it’s closer in size to what I would actually want from a pickup.
Preferentially, the R1T’s interior is drop-dead gorgeous. I’m still pissed that the kitchen is gone.
I think if we’re going with future versions, we can also consider that later CTs will have its cheaper (61k) editions available as well to compare. I donno about how tax credits will play out.
I’ll expect that the sharp edges on the CT will get sorted out, it’s the first year of production on a new vehicle on a new production line. These things take time.
First year production is always rough, but with Tesla they seem to let the buyers do the beta testing and fix stuff as they go. I wouldn’t be happy buying a half-baked product for the prices they are charging. But that’s just me :-).
Does the CT’s cheaper versions have actual release dates yet? I’m only banking on R1T future versions because they are literally the upcoming model year and Rivian doesn’t have the same reputation for making big claims and then delaying, delaying, and delaying even more. I feel pretty confident that the refreshed R1T will be delivered pretty damn close to on time if they are late at all.
I was going to say the R1T has a great interior. I don’t like any of the Tesla interiors, at all. So since that’s where I’d be spending my time then I wouldn’t even consider the CT. It being a hideously flawed design aside.
The other benefit to the Rivian is that it doesn’t immediately cause a reaction on the street – positive or negative. The CT is polarizing because it was designed to be that way. I for one prefer to be more inconspicuous.
Hey! That Xwitter video of the Tesla center is right by my house! Me and that Zerin Dube dude must be neighbors.