Registration data from earlier this year is starting to come in, giving us a better picture of some interesting fluctuations in the market. Do you feel like you’re seeing more Cybertrucks? That’s not a coincidence, as the Cybertruck has apparently outsold both the R1T and F-150 Lightning. But will it last?
Federal regulators are worried that your car knows too much about you and, therefore, China might know too much about you if your software is made in China. Rather than face that uncertain future, the government might restrict the data your car can share.
The industrial policies of both President Biden and Possible Future President Trump are built around bringing more manufacturing to the United States. Will that result in a dramatically different manufacturing footprint for cars? Probably not.
And, finally, Stellantis wants to make it cheaper and easier to buy an EV.
Tesla Tops R1T And F-150 Lightning In May
Every time I drive by there’s more and more CyberTrucks piling up. Some have grass growing up the tires lol pic.twitter.com/opCZMbXlRZ
— Zerin Dube (@SpeedSportLife) July 16, 2024
The same registration data that pointed us to an ascendant Toyota Tundra also reveals some changes in the electric truck landscape. The Tesla Cybertruck has edged out the leading EV truck, the F-150 Lightning.
As mentioned yesterday, companies are sharing less sales data so we’re relying on registration data to learn more about what did or didn’t sell. The downside of this data is that it’s on a delay. According to S&P Global Mobility via Automotive News, May registration data shows Tesla sold 3,907 of the Cybertruck, followed by 2,353 registrations for the Lightning and 1,237 registrations for the Rivian R1T.
If that holds, the Cybertruck would end up being the 5th most popular EV in the United States in May. Is this permanent? From the article:
While the Cybertruck is likely to be popular short term because of its reservation backlog, Libby said it’s otherwise in uncharted waters because it’s so different from rival trucks, regardless of fuel type.
“I just don’t see how it becomes anything approaching a mainstream vehicle, given its design,” Libby said. However, “Elon Musk is so visionary, he’s so out in front of everyone else, and he’s succeeded. That’s why I’m not going to dismiss it completely. Frankly, if it was from another company, I would dismiss it.”
This is kind of where I am. The dream of the EV truck is a weird one, as trucks are not ideal platforms for electric vehicles right now (look how much battery is needed to make the Silverado RST competitive). The Cybertruck is a decent truck and the wild looks are appealing to a certain demographic, but how much of this is a result of a backlog and how much of this is a dramatic shift in the marketplace?
I don’t know. Maybe Musk has it right. Maybe this is what everyone wants. If it can maintain this pace, Tesla might be able to outsell the F-150 Lightning this year. If Musk can deliver a cheaper Cybertruck, as promised, I could see it being the most popular EV truck this year.
‘A Car Is A Very Scary Thing. Your Car Knows A Lot About You.’
Earlier this year there was a lot of panic about Chinese cars spying on consumers, motivating the government to do something about it once the government figured out what was actually happening.
Now the government has looked into it and realized what the rest of us already knew, which is that cars are huge, leaky data sinks. The quotes from Alan Estevez — the Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security in this Reuters piece about the feds exploring Chinese cars — are both scary and a little funny:
“A car is a very scary thing. Your car knows a lot about you. Your car probably gets a software update, whether it’s an electric vehicle or an autonomous combustion engine vehicle,” he said.
“A modern car has a lot of software in it. It’s taking lots of pictures. It has a drive system. It’s connected to your phone. It knows who you call. It knows where you go. It knows a lot about you.”
Yup. What’s the government going to do about it?
“We’re looking at a few components and some software – not the whole car – but it would be some of the key driver components of the vehicle that manage the software and manage the data around that car that would have to be made in an allied country,”
There are few Chinese-built cars in the United States at the moment, though it may be inevitable.
Cars Will Continue To Be Made Mostly Where They Are Already Being Made: Report
The huge investment in electric cars may mean new jobs, but it also may just mean that plants that were once used to make gas-powered cars are going to make EVs, and that those workers, rather than being fired, are just going to get to keep their jobs.
All this comes from a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (h/t Automotive News), which comes to this conclusion:
At the scale of the integrated three-country region, we find surprisingly little change is expected in the geography of light vehicle production. Most BEVs are forecasted to be assembled in existing plants after they have been converted from ICE vehicle production. And most new battery (cell and pack) plants are being situated in auto alley, where engine plants have long been clustered.
This is partly explained by the fact that the underlying economic geography principles of motor vehicle production—agglomeration economics and economies of scale—continue to influence location decisions for production even as the auto industry shifts toward electrification. The majority of plants assemble large volumes of light vehicles and are located within auto alley and central Mexico, resulting in a highly agglomerated industry footprint.
That makes a lot of sense. While the EV industry requires a lot of new production techniques and inputs, the reality is that it’s easier to build cars where people already build cars.
Stellantis Will Give You A Charger Or $600 If You Buy An EV
Stellantis brands like Jeep and Chrysler have been at the forefront of PHEV technology here in the United States, but have seriously lagged in the EV space. That’s going to change as Stellantis starts selling more EVs like the new Wagoneer S and Dodge Charger Daytona.
It’s a crowded space, so how is Stellantis going to differentiate itself? From the automaker we’ve got our first indication of the Stellantis gameplan:
”As we introduce our all-electric vehicles this year in the U.S., we want to ensure that our customers easily understand the charging options available to them before or upon purchase,” said Mathilde Lheureux, head of energy and charge business unit. “Simply stated, included in the purchase of a Stellantis battery-electric vehicle is the ability choose a Free2move Level 2 charging unit or charging credits with a value of $600 to use at charging stations across the country, which are easily identifiable through the app.”
Various automakers also offer discounted chargers or credits for charging, including up to three years of free charging from VW for some of its buyers.
What I’m Listening To This Morning
Let’s calm it down a little bit with a new song from Laura Marling. Please enjoy some “Patterns.”
The Big Question
Rank’em by EOY sales:
- Tesla Cybertruck
- F-150 Lightning
- Hummer EV
- Silverado RST
- Rivian R1T
If Tesla had abandoned the stainless steel body and kept the styling, the cybertruck would be a much better vehicle.
The panel gaps and alignment would be acceptable, there would not be insane sharp edges at the ends of the body panels, and the engineering time & money spent trying to form stainless steel could have been put to use refining the design details. As it is, things like the exterior lighting look like afterthoughts bought off the shelf at Autozone.
It didn’t have to be that way.
The flurry of BetaMax purchases augurs well for Sony. Ooops
I saw a Cybertruck in the wild today for the first time. Up close, it was kinda fugly. It’s all angles and sharp edges. It seemed crude and not elegant at all, which I suppose is the aesthetic they are going for. This one was in a strange shade of brown. It reminded me of what a little kid would draw for a car of the future. Not my thing, though I’m sure they’ll sell a ton of ’em.
I still haven’t seen a Cybertruck in the wild, but I see a ton of Rivians around. I just drove halfway across the country and back and this was as true on my trip as it is in my local area. I think the Rivians looks awesome and the Cybertruck looks dumb, so hopefully that trend continues!
The Cybertruck is in this weird position where it has a TON of baggage attached but it also has the weirdos who paid for Twitter as an audience so the market is simultaneously quite strong and incredibly limited.
It’s going to be interesting to see if it can sustain itself, and to see what the secondhand market is going to look like with people laughing at the owners.