Unless you’ve got something classic, like a 1929 Duesenberg Model J ‘Butterfly’ Dual-Cowl Phaeton or a 1989 Corolla All-Trac Wagon, the price of your not-too-old car is going to be somewhat dictated by the price of the new car. When Tesla decided to slash its prices overnight it was good news for buyers but terrible news for sellers (CarMax off-loaded most of its inventory). Now Tesla is slowly raising its prices again. What’s going on here?
We have an explanation of that, some good news for Aston fans, an update on Faraday Future, and some BMW news. But Tesla has once again elbowed its way into the top spot.
Tesla Wants To Use Its Weight Against Carmakers And Its Own Customers Are The Victims (Or Beneficiaries)
It was big news last month when Tesla, reacting to the opportunity created by EV tax credit rules and declining demand, dropped its prices by thousands of dollars (including up to 23% off a Tesla Model Performance Y).
How you felt about this was likely predicated based on who you are and what your plans are:
- If you just bought a Tesla you’re cranky because not only did you apparently overpay for your car, your car is now suddenly worth even more than the standard depreciation you expected (or maybe didn’t since tight supplies have kept used car residual values higher than normal).
- If you’re in the market for a new Tesla it was good news, because now you’re getting a massive discount.
- If you’re in the market for a used Tesla it was probably good news as well, because you can either afford a new one or try to argue for a lower price on a used model.
- If you’re a used car dealer you’re confused and worried, because who knows what’s going to happen next?
- If you’re the EV competition, you’re wondering how you react to this price war. Ford cut its prices on the Mach-E; other automakers are taking a wait-and-see approach.
If you just bought a Tesla, I feel some sympathy for you for missing out on a great deal, but them’s the breaks when you’re dealing with Elon Musk. If you scored a cheap deal on a new Tesla, awesome news for you. It’s extra awesome news because Tesla just increased their prices on the Model Y Long Range by $1,500 and the Model Y Performance by $1,000, so you bought at what was probably the bottom of the market.
Why did this happen? Ostensibly, this is because the IRS clarified its rules over what’s an SUV and what’s a passenger car in favor of automaker demands. Before, a Model Y didn’t qualify for the $80,000 cap, so its cars needed to be priced under $55,000. That’s not the case anymore, so prices are back up again. In theory, Elon Musk could have raised the price of his cars an even greater amount, so this slight adjustment is not that big of a deal. Car companies do this all the time. For example, Ford’s raised the price of the electric F-150 Lightning so many times I’ve lost count.
What’s the bigger reason this is happening? First, check out this graphic showing Tesla vehicle production by quarter. Tesla is not a non-profit. When demand was high and production was constrained it raised prices. Now that production is high and there’s competition from others (in particular, BYD) it’s in a good position to lower prices to maintain as much of its large market share as it possibly can.
Second, Tesla is still the big heavy and it can push its weight around to try and make life harder for the competition. Ford, for instance, dropped the prices of its Mach-E seemingly in response to Tesla and the IRS. Ford is fairly advanced in the production of the Mach-E so it could probably do this without as much difficulty as other companies.
Other companies, however, haven’t made adjustments. One big reason? Many of them are already priced to be competitive with Teslas. Automotive News put out a good article on this topic, and I think this bit is key:
The most inexpensive VW ID4, at $40,290 with shipping, is already less expensive than Tesla’s base Model Y at $55,130 with shipping. Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 starts at $42,785 with shipping.
Brian Moody, executive editor for Kelley Blue Book, said legacy automakers can’t ignore Tesla because of its dominance of the EV market, but they also don’t have to follow Tesla’s strategy of cutting prices to juice demand.
“Another strategy is: We’re not going to lower our prices on our current models because we think they are priced right,” Moody said. “But we are going to offer a small truck at a lower price and a small sedan at a lower price. Those things are coming.”
It’s good to be an EV consumer now because if you can’t wait for a car there are good deals to be had.
My guess is that the best year to be an EV customer is in 2024 when we get point-of-sale tax credits, automakers have (hopefully) built enough infrastructure in North America to qualify for those tax credits, and we’re suddenly drowning in competitive models with decent range serviced by a more robust charging network. Just a guess.
BMW Putting $872 Million In Mexican Plant
As I was saying, the Inflation Reduction Act has led to a rush to build electric vehicles and their parts in North America and Mexico just gained nearly a billion dollars in investment from BMW for a new plant in San Luis Potosi.
From Bloomberg via The Detroit News:
More than half of the investment will be used to build a new high-voltage battery assembly plant at the site, the German carmaker said Friday, confirming a January announcement of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The expansion will create around 1,000 new jobs, with EV production scheduled to start in 2027.
The Mexican plant will produce EVs based on BMW’s “Neue Klasse” underpinnings — a new platform that is central to the company’s efforts to take on Tesla Inc., which continues to dominate global EV sales. BMW aims to cut cell costs by half and increase range and charging speed by 30% compared to current models.
The Neue Klasse commeth, though not fastesth enough for everyone.
Faraday’s Future Looks A Little (?) Brighter (???)
I’m really happy with the headline “Faraday Future Continues To Produce More Drama Than Actual Cars.” That’s some solid work. Also in the pantheon of fun headlines about California-based EV company Faraday Future is “Controversial Chinese Billionaire Will Try To Save EV Company That Spent $3 Billion And Hasn’t Delivered A Car.” Classic.
The good news for Faraday Future comes in the form of this Reuters headline: “Faraday Future shares soar on securing funding to start EV production.” What’s going on?
Shares of Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc (FFIE.O) soared about 28% in premarket trading on Monday after the company said it had raised enough funds to start production of its electric luxury car FF 91 Futurist in March.
Delivery of the sports utility vehicle, originally slated to start in late 2022, will now begin before the end of April, the company said on Sunday.
The development offered a spot of relief to investors who have seen the stock plummet 92% since listing in July 2021 as the loss-making startup grappled with a boardroom battle, governance issues and a dwindling cash balance that hurt its production plans.
The markets are opening soon so we’ll see how far the company climbs (though it’s still hovering way lower than its all-time high of $18.45). Building cars is both the most important part of proving you have a real company and also the hardest part. Just ask Rivian.
(Editor’s note: That fact that anyone is still writing about Faraday Future in the Year of our Lord 2023 is baffling. Every time I see a new headline about this company, I have to check to make sure I didn’t accidentally drop acid that morning. So why are they still at it after, you know, everything? The WSJ speculates it could just get snatched up by someone else, maybe even a fossil fuel company. That makes more sense to me than FF ever becoming an actual, going concern as a car-producing entity. -PG)
Aston Martin Is Going To Pikes Peak
Here’s a selfish plug. I enjoy Pikes Peak quite a bit. The “race to the clouds” outside of Colorado Springs sees cars starting at about 9,000 feet and racing up a 12.42-mile ‘track’ to reach a finish line more than 14,000 feet in the sky. It’s incredible and I even produced and co-directed a docu-series about it that’s still streaming on Motor Trend on Demand for your viewing pleasure.
One of the most interesting trends in recent years is the slow realization that the wild, often open-wheel prototype cars built for conquering the mountain are slowly giving way to GT3 cars and even production vehicles. Last year Robin Shute won handily in his Unlimited Class prototype, but right behind him were a mostly stock 2022 Porsche 911 Turbo S and GT2 RS Club Sport. Wild times.
This trend will continue this year with the first-ever entrant of an Aston Martin in the race. The car will be a Vantage GT3 Race Car run by British firm Venture Engineering. The even bigger news is that the team has selected last year’s champion Robin Shute as its driver. That’s cool. They’re running the car in Time Attack 1 Class this year, which is a great place for a new car. Next year? They want to put a car into the Unlimited class, which has me thinking they’re going for it all.
The race is going to take place on Sunday, June 25th, and the best way to see it is to go. You should go.
The… Question Part
Am I wrong? Is 2024 too soon to buy an EV? When’s the right time?
2024 could be the year I buy my first ever brand new car. I’ve always been a big fan of someone else taking the depreciation hit, but with a BEV it does feel more like buying a smart phone. Getting one brand new and driving it as much as possible feels like a better value since the batteries still have a finite life and likely aren’t going to be worth replacing at the end of the 8 year warranty. With my 2012 Volt likely approaching its expiration date, I would like to replace it with a full BEV – it’s definitely sold me on driving electric. Plus, I’ve already got the level 2 EVSE set up in the garage. Right now I’ve got my eye on the GM’s new Equinox. I live in a small town. It’s about 12 miles to work in the big town. The genuine city nearby is around 45 miles, and the only family I regularly visit is 90 miles away. The Equinox has a claimed range of 300 miles and would be perfect for all of that. For the occasional road-trip, I’d rather soak up miles in the comfort of my ’94 Fleetwood anyway. The big kicker to all of this is the price. I’ll be happy to give $22,500 for a brand new Equinox when they come out if I can get the full point-of-sale discount. Otherwise, if the dealers are still playing the “value added past MSRP” game I may go for a Bolt. Or I may end up over-spending on an air-cooled Bug since that’s what my daughter wants when she turns 16 next year and skip out on the whole New experience all together.
“The… Question Part”
YES!!! This is the right name for this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NO, don’t buy an EV unless you are rich.
We can ALL be rich… rich in spirit!
:-p
I don’t know if 2024 is the year to buy, but 2024 is expected to be a banner year of new EV models from many different brands. We’ll see an influx of EV choices like we’ve never seen before.
Right time to buy an EV is when they stop selling gasoline.
“Is 2024 too soon to buy an EV? When’s the right time?”
That depends, for a daily driver, probably never for me.
Or at least not in the foreseeable future, unless it’s less than 5 minutes for a 10-90% fill-up and range is decent, and they are affordable, and also kWh rates are affordable, the battery won’t die in 8 years, and cold weather range is a non-issue.
Sounds like sci-fi.
Currently, it does not look like we are heading in that direction unfortunately.
For a secondary grocery getter for short local trips though, sure.
That is if they get way-waaay more affordable, like sub-$5k winter beater level cheap.
Then I’d accept all the baggage that comes with one: the range limit, cold weather issues (that’s 4-5 months in NH), lack of charging infrastructure, battery degradation.
A good friend of mine owns not one but TWO 1989 Corolla All Trac wagons. He also lives about half an hours’ drive from Torch.
Root, good to see you over here.
FWIW, I live in a house half a century older than yours, in the oldest part of the country (slightly to your northeast I’d expect), and I was able to bring 100 amp service out to my detached garage from 200Amp service. Total cost without installing the chargers (and without rebates) was $1800.
With that being said, I have a PHEV, and I work from home. So I’m charging overnight with a 110 and it’s fine. I’ll upgrade to the 220 when I add solar and wind to the garage, and buy a BEV. No reason to buy a big battery at the highest cost to cover range I don’t need day to day.
MH: Here’s your answer: 2024- Get a PHEV. Charging isn’t good (full stop, it sucks), and you don’t want to deal with that Musk. We can also get more people to reduce their emissions with PHEVs because they require less battery. Of course if boomers start pushing for an end to work from home….
2027- Get a BEV as the charging infrastructure will be better, and you’ll hopefully have home renewables to cut the costs. You’ll also have solidified rebates, and hopefully more of the foundation for our domestic production will be clearer.
My house has 125A service and was built in 1969. There was no problem putting a 60A circuit for a wall connector. I just have to make sure not to run the central a/c, dryer, and car charging at the same time.
2024 is right when a lot of compelling EV’s will be rolling out. The point of sale credit will be nice, too. That’s the year I’m seriously considering having a car payment again. Both cars are getting up there in age/miles, we can L2 charge at home and NY has lots of public DC and L2 charging. So does New England. Even vacationing 5-6 hours from home, we’d find a charger. If we get an EV with V2L we can power our small camper for the little bit of power it needs without toting a smelly and still sort of noisy inverter generator.
Although I agree a a 50A subpanel is the best option (at the standard 80% down rating, it’d allow 40A charging, which is the upper limit of home charging), I’d just like to point out that 15A is enough to completely charge a 80kwh battery from 0 in just shy of 24h. 40A would be able to do that in a bit less than 9, though.
“24 hours is still unusable. Especially for Joe Average who has a commute every morning.”
But we aren’t talking about the commute charge needing 24 hours. I’m not going to tell you that the charging would meet everyone’s needs, but it’s going to be plenty for most commutes. I currently charge my PHEV on 110 and complete my whole commute each day on electric no problem. I suspect a BEV on 15A would be very useable for most commuters, assuming relative grid stability. Especially if you charge up to 80% most of the time.
Of course, there are plenty of other issues that could keep a person off a BEV, and I don’t want to pretend everyone can adopt them right now.
“24 hours is still unusable. Especially for Joe Average who has a commute every morning. And 9 hours is still a huge problem, because the last thing you want to be doing is charging at peak.”
Joe Average does not need his whole 80KWh battery to commute every day.
9 hours is not a problem, especially at 220V. Joe Average can easily charge overnight, during off-peak, with more than enough time to top off a battery for his commute every day, even with only 110 volt charging. That restores about 4-7 miles to the battery per hour. Nine hours restores over 30 miles of range even at the low end of 110 volt.
You’ve moved the goal posts so often and so far when discussing EVs that I’m not even sure you know what zip code they belong in. Just because you can’t get your desired power for air conditioning, EV charging, a high voltage plug for welding and additional plugs for whatever else you have in mind doesn’t make everyone else’s use case so miserable, too.
I will buy an EV when 1) Need arises. My vehicles are 2014 – 77k miles and 2016 – 89k miles. Each ‘could’ last many more years with continued maintenance. 2) The technology and charging infrastructure matures. I have no interest in sitting in a grocery store parking lot waiting for a car to charge.
My wife’s car is most likely to be replaced in the next 3 years. Something like a Honda Accord Hybrid would be in the running.
I’ve owned my Model Y for 1 year now, and I’ve never once sat anywhere to charge it. It charges in my garage overnight when I’m sleeping. People only charge at those shopping center spots only because they plan to be there for a while, especially when the chargers are free.
The wife and I will be buying a new car in the next year or two and EVs are certainly intriguing. We have a two car fleet and we could charge at home, so one of those could be an EV if we want it to. However, I have this feeling that battery tech and infrastructure will improve a lot over the next five or so years, so I’m thinking its more of a car after next proposition. I feel like I will regret buying one in the next couple of model years because what follows might be significantly better. Also, my dad bought a Mach E last year and I’ve been monitoring his experiences with it. So far it’s fine, not particularly good or bad. He’s road tripped the Mach E a couple of times and it sounded like a terrible experience to me, but it’s great around town even with the significant loss of range this winter. I kind of want my first EV to be a little better than just fine.
Loving the new ads with photos of buxom old ladies and captions such as: “leave your partner satisfied, even if you are over 50” and “Forget the blue pill, try this and you will be intrigued”.
I believe the ads are targeted to your browsing history so……
I think that’s right. So far the only ads I see are for some shoes I bought a couple of weeks ago.
Yeah, I’ve gotten ads for car parts, computer software, and the like. As I expect from most sites.
I think it’s more related to ‘targeted demographic’, not necessarily what you searched for. If they think you’re over 55, you might get ads like that….
Well, the buxom old ladies are gone, replaced by Clorox wipes and Align probiotic. I do admit that I am old.
2024 is probably going to be a tough year for EV buyers because of that point-of-sale rebate. Demand will be up, dealers will be taking advantage when/where they can, and there is likely to be a lot of misinformation going around that will make it harder for folks to be sure they qualify.
As to whether it is too early, it’s hard to say. If you can install appropriate charging at your home and are taking only a couple longer trips a year, the difference in time between ICE and EV is largely how spread out you want it. A bunch of short trips to the gas station or a few longer sits on your road trips. And the EV is going to be cheaper to run in most places.
But that time on a road trip is a big one for a lot of folks. Even if the short gas-ups add up over a year, road trip time is generally limited. And a PHEV allows you to skip both the regular fill-ups and the road trip slowdowns, so it is a better option for a lot of people.
Short-range EVs are fantastic if you have at least a couple cars and can have a dedicated local vehicle. Long-range EVs are great if you plan to stop for sit-down meals as often as you’ll need to charge on trips. But a large number of people look for the car that can do all the things.
“Unless they’re being hyperfocused on a specific class of cars (which the Ioniq 5 isn’t part of so, huh?) Uh, hello? The Hyundai Kona Electric starts at $33,550, the Kia Niro EV at $39,950, and the Kia EV6 at $48,500. Not including accounting shams like tax credits either.
Those aren’t typos, folks. If you really want an EV in an SUV package, the Koreans have three very attractive options, at rational pricing”
Uhhhhh the Ioniq 5 is quite literally in the same class as the EV6, Model Y, ID.4, and Mach-E. The Kona and Niro are a class below.
In the way that the consumer sees them. The EV6 and Inoniq 5 are the same car with different body panels, which are the same size as the Mach-E and ID.4, which is a mid-sized crossover. The Niro and Kona are compact crossovers.
Just like the Rolls Royce Phantom Coupe isn’t a compact car, yet that’s how the EPA rated it.
You know the ev6 and ioniq 5 are the same car, right ?
The Flush: 2023 is too soon for me to buy an EV because noone sells a new BEV in the US that I want currently. In 2024 Fiat is supposed to bring the 500e to the US but they very well might not bring the 3+1 variant with the extra passenger side “suicide door” which is the one I’d want. That being said though with the snow we got this year my 1994 Toyota pickup with 4WD, 6.8″ of ground clearance, and quality snow tires was running out of ground clearance in places and almost got stuck a few times, and since I don’t want to own ANY car I cannot drive year round I’m having a hard time justifying a purchase of a 500e.
I love the snow and I don’t want to live anywhere without snow, and if I do move it’ll likely be to somewhere with even more snow than where I am currently, which makes it hard for me to justify getting any regular BEV without AWD, at least 6.8″ of ground clearance, and the ability of snow tires. That being said I’d make an exception for the ground clearance requirement with a FWD or AWD BEV van that I can get snow tires for (I’d really like a 62kw e-NV200 with a built in inverter) as I’d turn the van into a little camper (only permanent mods would be a shower/sink combo and incinerator toilet) as if I can be comfortably stuck in the snow I don’t mind, I’ll just wait out the storm and shovel the snow around me at a leisurely pace. Being stuck in the snow with a Fiat 500e though would not be a comfortable experience.
The BEV tech necessary for me to buy a BEV has existed for at least twice as long as I’ve been alive, it’s just that noone has put that tech in an automobile I’ve really wanted to buy since I’ve been able to legally buy an automobile. Nissan should start building e-NV200s in the US with built in inverters, they have no competition (unless they make the van more expensive than a SWB low roof e-Transit), and they use a ton of Leaf parts. If they did start making them in the US I’d buy two of them at the minimum (one for now and one to keep preserved until the other dies).
Faraday Future is the EV Kardashian. There is absolutely no reason for the media to talk about them, but they just can’t stop.
Tesla is a perfect example of why purchase incentives are a rigged game. They can obviously afford to sell a Model Y for $55k and people are willing to pay $55k. If the government kicks in $7500, Tesla is more than willing to keep any or all of that and still sell the same amount of cars. Tesla wins, taxpayers lose.
The pricier SUV rebate bracket incentivizes inefficiency and waste of scarce natural resources. In what world is it fair for a $60,000 household to pay taxes to fund a rebate on some rich person’s $80,000 car?
It depends on how you look at it. EV incentives aren’t about saving consumers money, they’re about scaling out EV production to the point where it becomes self-sustaining. From that perspective I would argue that the rebate money going to the manufacturers is not an accident, it’s the whole point.
I started investing in TSLA in 2013. It was the majority of my portfolio, and it did amazing the past 9.5 years. Then Elon became unhinged, started attacking his customer base to “own the libs”, and he just didn’t stop. I bailed. I sold all of it. I made a lot of money… but like…. I also lost about 15k worth of value because of his need to troll people online.
Check out /r/nomoremusk on reddit; people are trying to push him away from Tesla so the company can become more independent from his craziness.
Now that Elon is seemingly immune to lawsuits, I figured that Tesla’s prices will vary like Uber/Lyft pricing.
2024 is still early adopter phase. The infrastructure is still growing, and having pains. Consider it’s only been 10 years since this ‘modern’ generation of EVs has been available(mass produced, over 100 mile range, fast charging), that’s like buying a Model T in 1918. What if I run out of gas? Where can I get more gas? If I want to go on a long trip I have to plan my route around available gas stations? I don’t have to do that with my horse, this is balderdash! Harrumph!
arguably you could at least take your horse to a fuel supply and drag a gallon back to the old Tin Lizzie. But if that is the analogy, I would at least wait until the 1932 coupes. the T was definitely on par but not really superior to a horse and buggy before roads and fuel stations caught up. the Model A was jump and arguably better than horse an buggy, but it was the 32 with an American V8 that really made the fords worth looking at.
So if that tracks, then maybe the mid 2030s, possibly that’s when solid state batteries start coming out(the V8 of batteries!), more range, faster charging, and then more stations available.
Back then, you could always get yourself some gasoline at a pharmacy.
If you have a second, long distance car, having an EV as an option for the daily commute makes some sense…until you realize it’s still far cheaper to just get a used civic hybrid or something.
I feel like most US manufacturers are already pulling back from export/foreign markets. GM abandoned Europe, Ford just left India. Stellantis is very tenuously connected to itself; I feel that if the US and global branches were severed no one would be affected much.
I’m sure the discussion around EVs will be totally reasonable and even keeled…anyway it just depends on your use case. If you’re only going to be driving short distances and can install a home charger and/or have easy access to public charging infrastructure then they can work great. As long as you don’t need to drive long distances you’ll be a okay and having an EV will save you money and reduce your carbon footprint.
However if you need to drive long distances and/or live in a place with 4 seasons they’re less than ideal no matter what the EV stans tell you. None of them reach their EPA range in practice. Car Wow just did an actual range test and I believe the best performer out of the lot managed about 82% of its advertised range and the others were in the 70s. There are plenty of other real world tests out there that conclude similarly, and in cold weather they also fare much worse. That’s just how it is right now, and the infrastructure issues in most places in the US are well documented.
At the end of the day buying one right now makes you an early adapter. If the technology is something you’re passionate about and you are willing to deal with the inherent compromises or live in a place like California where there’s good infrastructure and favorable weather conditions that minimize them, you’ll probably enjoy one. If you don’t, I understand not wanting to take that step yet.
I think PHEVs and traditional hybrids are an excellent compromise for where we are today…because we’re in a transition period and going with either of those is still better environmentally than driving a pure ICE car that isn’t good on gas. I do think the government mandates are pie in the sky where things stand currently and are going to put both consumers and manufacturers in a difficult places…because EVs are expensive to make, expensive to buy, and the technology isn’t fully understood yet.
If you’re EV passionate and can live with the compromises or are in an area optimized for EV ownership, I say go right ahead and I hope the cars bring you joy. But if you aren’t there yet I’m not going to drag you through the muck. I’m personally in the middle…I think the technology is cool and important but without the infrastructure and with the weather where we live the wife and I would need to make a lot of sacrifices to make a BEV work. However we’ll be looking PHEV and hybrid for our next cars.
Honestly I think (non range extended) PHEVs are arguably the least practical vehicles on the market. They suck as a BEV as they have no range, they suck as an ICE vehicle because they have to haul around an oversized overweight battery pack, and they suck as a pure hybrid because they got way more battery capacity than they need. A ton of European countries tried forcing PHEVs on people by making non PHEV hybrids and ICE vehicles much more expensive via taxes and they’ve found through studies that ~80% of the people who bought them never plugged them in.
A PHEV you never plug in is just an overweight regular hybrid that requires more rare earth metals requiring more mining which pollutes more…
Range extenders for BEVs make a ton of sense because they’re little lightweight engines that don’t add much weight and they don’t add any complication to the drivetrain as they’re not part of it technically, they just function as a generator and technically speaking if your range extender were to fail there’s no reason why you couldn’t drive it as a pure BEV.
If your ICE engine were to fail on a regular PHEV good luck doing anything with that car, you probably can’t even drive to your nearest dealership with a full charge.
Again, it comes down to use. I’m in an urban area and for me and the wife’s needs they’d work well, because our commutes are within their all electric range and we could charge them at night. I think that’s the case for many people who use their cars to commute, and if I’m not mistaken (I frequently am, to be fair) most PHEV batteries are small enough that you can adequately top them off without needing specialized equipment, which can’t be said of most BEVs. But you can still road trip them and even when run as traditional hybrids they do offer fuel economy advantages. Whether or not they’re worth it definitely comes down to use, and I do see where you’re coming from.
The extra complication is definitely a pain, but what isn’t complicated mechanically in this day and age? Unless you’re buying nothing but under stressed NA engines (which some people are, there are definitely folks in that camp here) you’re taking a risk on complicated repairs with pretty much any modern car. It’s just the nature of the game these days with how much emissions regulations have tightened.
The issue is that under stressed NA engines are terrible on gas. If you don’t care and the financial hit of chugging gas is palatable then I get buying one…but it’s hard to make an argument that they’re better environmentally. I think for people that commute in cars but want long range capability they’re a good compromise.
What if your electric range was down by half? Which regularly happens in winter weather, also with battery degradation due to age and use your range will go down even further.
Generally speaking when choosing a BEV you should be able to get by with 1/3rd of your range as with a combination of factors like highway speeds and below freezing temperatures you can have your range drop to 1/3rd of its actual rated range and that’s without any battery degradation.
I do agree about modern car complication and I am in the camp that prefers under stressed NA engines, but I will say they are not necessarily bad on gas. It’s a matter of having enough horsepower and torque for your car to do what you want. Turbos are great for drastically increasing the horsepower and torque when needed, whereas if you don’t have the horsepower needed for a NA engine you gotta shift as close to max horsepower as you can which is hard on the engine and not particularly fuel efficient.
For me I could easily get by with a 1.0L N/A Ford Fox 3 cylinder (they’re a European market engine only with a 6 speed manual in something like a Bronco Sport or a Ford Maverick. But that’s because I don’t need to tow a boat, or anything of the sort.
I think a BEV with a range extender makes a ton more sense than a PHEV as you can have a very small battery pack (like in a PHEV) but instead of having a massive full sized ICE engine you can have a tiny range extender with a decent size gas tank and get the same effective ICE range with the same capabilities but with less drivetrain complication, a longer BEV only range, and much much lower weight.
Most pure hybrids also use a under stressed N/A engine and generally speaking those engines last the longest due to their use with a planetary eCVT where they can keep the engines at a set RPM which minimizes engine wear.
Let’s look at the average American commute for a second. It appears to have increased this year to 41 miles per day (I wonder if remote jobs switching to in-person, rising housing prices, or something else caused the increase, but let’s stick with the data). Interestingly, it looks like 68% are below that average, so there are some long commutes bringing the average up.
If used as expected, typical PHEVs could be EV for the whole commute for a significant number of commuters, or most of the commute for others. Of course, most use the ICE for heat, so winters involve some use. Then, on trips, those users could use gas and get hybrid efficiency. Especially for single-car households, they make a lot of sense in that regard.
As to your ICE failure, it’s an odd point. On most vehicles, if the powertrain fails it becomes useless. On some (though I am pretty sure not all) PHEVs, you’d at least have the short EV range if the ICE fails or the ICE if the battery fails, assuming no major dependencies.
I do really like BEVs with range extenders, but ruling out PHEVs ignores the way they could allow someone to have electric commutes without a second car or the stops on longer trips.
In my personal real-world usage, my Niro PHEV is electric most of the time and ends up getting 45-52 mpg when I travel, depending on how much of a hurry I get into. I charge it with a level 1 charging cable and don’t need to worry about installing a new electrical panel in the house I’m renting.
Yes, however an ICE failure is much more likely than a electric motor failure, same goes for a transmission failure in a PHEV when most BEVs are direct drive with what amounts to a single speed transmission.
The issue with the PHEV is that the battery electric range is nonexistent except when it’s brand new, and brand new it’s barely adequate. a BEV with a range extender is much more practical, and likely much lighter than a PHEV even if it has double the electric only range of that PHEV.
A Range extended BEV makes more sense than a PHEV and does the job better. it’s just a matter of making the BEV and putting a range extender in it, whereas most PHEVs are just giant batteries, a much larger electric motor, and a charging port shoehorned into a regular hybrid.
A BEV could lose the tiny and mostly unused frunk for a self contained range extender generator unit.
PHEV range is adequate for a significant number of people, and the funny thing about battery degradation as a percentage of the battery is that a small percentage of reduction in a small range is going to be nearly unnoticeable to most people.
As to ICE being more likely to fail than an electric motor, that is true, but I’ve been driving ICE vehicles for long enough to largely trust them, as most here have. Engine and transmission failure happens, but not so often as to put most of us off engines, even if they are the only thing powering the wheels.
Again, I do like the idea of BEV with range extender (and I am really interested in seeing how that Mazda turns out with the rotary), but I don’t think that the impact of a PHEV can be ignored. If the goal is to drastically reduce emissions/fuel consumption, they can do that for a not-insignificant portion of the population. Anyone with a commute that can be covered by the EV range could go EV most of the time and have a gasser for trips without two vehicles. Sure, a BEV with extender is much the same, but there’s no need to dismiss typical PHEVs, which have largely the same practical effect for a lot of people.
Nobody plugs in PHEV’s. At least that’s what occurred in Europe when the issue of tax credits for PHEV’s came up. Something like 80% weren’t plugged in. They’re the awkward duck-fish of the auto world. The battery is too large for a regular hybrid, it’ll degrade faster because it’s cycled over most of its capacity if used as intended and when the ICE kicks on it has to haul around unnecessary battery. A solution in search of a problem IMO.
I have not looked into the methodology of that 80% study, but I have seen some folks say it was pretty flawed. That said, even if we assume 80% don’t plug in, if we could convince them to plug in, that would have a significant effect on emissions and fuel consumption. And, given the role range has in keeping people from going BEV, the PHEV gives people that range for the couple times a year they actually need it.
They are a solution to range anxiety for now. Until we get enough range and/or fast enough charging to convince the general public EVs will meet all their needs, PHEVs are a good way to get people going EV most of the time. Especially single-car households.
“Nobody plugs in PHEV’s. ”
Well now I’m gonna have to go buy one and plug it in JUST TO SPITE YOU!!!
😛
/jk
PHEVs are the best solution, but automakers stopped developing, improving and building so many of them. Many that are made have such limited availability that most people can’t even discover them.
The Honda Clarity PHEV is probably the best one that ever hit the market. Real world winter range of 30+ miles means I haven’t used any gas at all in over three weeks. When I do use gas, I’m getting 42 MPG both city and highway. The best part is that it’s basically a slightly overweight Accord with a very low center of gravity and 212 HP. It’s not a fast car, but it doesn’t feel slow, and it’s very lux inside.
Toyota had a clue. My first choice would have been a RAV4 Prime, but finding one outside of California has been nearly impossible. The Prius Prime is more imaginary than real in most of the country.
Chevy almost got it, too. The Chevy Volt is a vastly underrated car, once the second generation came out and they ditched the premium fuel requirement. I was very eager for it to go through the third generation upsizing that pretty much all cars experience, but nope, it was cancelled instead.
Maybe Stellantis will pick up the torch? The Jeep 4Xe line is selling much better than projected, and at full MSRP. Apparently a Jeep that doesn’t require a second mortgage to fuel is a good idea. Who knew? Make more!
The Chrysler Pacifica PHEV is really quite excellent, again, if you can find one. But I question their commitment because there’s still an outstanding recall without a solution for fire risk, even though it’s been over six months since the problem was acknowledged. WTF, Stellantis? (Maybe it’s time to grab a used one while prices are depressed.)
My local Porsche dealer told me that the most difficult Porsches to get are the PHEV Cayenne and Panamera. The local Volvo dealer never received Volvo’s own PHEVs to sell.
I’m going to single Ford out for special criticism. They made the Fusion and the C-Max as PHEV, but the problem is, Ford did an absolutely awful job of it. They sized and packaged the battery so there’s virtually no useful trunk at all in either. Ford’s PHEV driving experience? Miserable. The gas pedal works just fine, if a bit weak. But the brakes are so poorly tuned at low speeds you can’t engage them without being ready to brace for impact. Yet they’re docile and predictable at highway speed.
I have only one thing to say to automakers. Make the damned PHEVs! There are plenty of buyers for all you can make, but you have to make the damned things!
Yeah, it cannot be overstated how shitty they did with the Fusion. I wanted one. The Fusion was great, PHEV should have just made it better. But the lack of useable trunk space in such a way as to completely block the pass-through killed any interest. And, yeah, Ford didn’t seem to understand how to blend regenerative braking into normal braking. It was light regenerative, sudden screeching halt.
And, yes, the Volt in a 3rd generation upsize would have been excellent. And, like you said, the Toyota Primes sell for over MSRP before the few arriving hit dealerships, the Kia PHEVs sell all they’ll send, even here in Idaho, and good luck finding the Volvos.
And because they aren’t available, dealers know nothing about them. Before I bought my Niro, I asked two dealerships for test drives. One did not keep theirs charged and said it was exactly the same in EV and hybrid mode (it’s not). Neither seemed to know much of anything, certainly nothing I hadn’t already learned before looking. And most dealers actively steer people to things they know they’ll get quicker.
A Hyundai dealer in Oregon (where they actually get the PHEVs) told me there was not any plan for a PHEV Tucson after I had gone to Hyundai’s website and entered my info and paid $100 to get my name on one (they also sold the one they were sent in the configuration I ordered to someone willing to pay over MSRP after they quoted MSRP, so they were particularly bad).
My answer to The Question Part – 2024 might be okay, but I think 2025 is going to be better, with the assumption that control of congress and the presidency doesn’t switch and decide that Wyoming had the right idea and ban the sale of electric cars entirely. It seems like a reasonable supposition that the charging infrastructure will not be built on schedule, ditto the battery plants, and it won’t really start to see economies of scale and full use of the tax credit provisions until ’25. That also gives the automakers more time to roll out more product at the lower end of the price range (ha, ha, I kid. They’re not going to do that), which seem like they’d be better for mass adoption.
I think the American politics having an impact is less and less, China and Europe are going all out for EVs, we are not the superpower we think we are any more, we’re a big market but there are other equally important markets and they’re not stopping the EV train. For American car makers to keep up they have to develop EVs, and will lobby to keep their new products relevant in America. Dems are all peacy greeny so will go along, Reps are all pro business so will go along, except apparently in Wyoming, which has so few constituents there’s a proposed ‘Wyoming law’ to redistribute house of representative members more evenly based on the lowest populated districts. Consider this, North Dakota has more people than Wyoming, so the fact they don’t see EVs as a thing isn’t surprising, they’re kind of out there in the boonies.
Dipshit CEO = Dipshit Company.
The simplest business equation, ever.
Show us where the bad man hurt you… did he hit you in the Twitter?
This isn’t about actual margins or operating profit after costs anymore. It’s all just a shell game.
“Second, Tesla is still the big heavy and it can push its weight around to try and make life harder for the competition.”
I mean, this is true if you believe EVs and ICE cars aren’t substitutes for each other at all. Ford sells 4x as many vehicles in the US as Tesla does.
I don’t know how many people seriously cross shop EVs with regular cars, but I imagine a decent number do. If Tesla tried selling the Model Y for $100k, I bet some prospective buyers would stick with gas.
In late 2021 I was initially going to get the new Acura MDX, but also started looking at BEVs to see if they would fit my lifestyle. Turns out they are very easy to live with, because I was able to get a 60A charger installed at home. Also here in SF bay area, level 3 chargers are everywhere. There are 3 Tesla supercharger stations within 8 miles of my home. I don’t drive long distances (>150 miles) in a single day generally so even the range is not that important, although I did get the Model Y so it has plenty of range. Granted, on a long road trip, a BEV would take longer to refuel than ICE. I’ve not taken such a road trip in the Model Y so in the past year, I’ve saved lots of time not having to go to gas stations.